* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952014 10/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 30 30 31 33 33 30 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 30 30 31 33 33 30 26 25 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 28 27 27 27 29 30 31 29 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 29 22 19 24 25 25 26 45 61 69 53 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 3 1 -4 -5 -2 0 17 14 0 0 SHEAR DIR 255 270 284 288 284 298 274 251 247 207 189 181 192 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 27.9 26.4 25.2 25.1 16.0 9.5 6.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 152 150 149 146 137 121 112 111 75 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 138 136 135 133 126 111 103 102 72 67 66 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -51.6 -48.9 -47.1 -46.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 7 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 58 56 52 49 50 48 54 46 56 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -14 -8 -3 -13 -34 -46 -64 119 230 333 385 368 200 MB DIV 29 36 20 20 12 16 10 26 56 84 115 101 64 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 4 6 8 -4 1 -133 -289 -171 -53 LAND (KM) 216 224 245 302 365 563 840 1196 1148 579 173 -98 331 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.1 21.7 23.5 25.9 29.0 33.3 38.8 44.0 48.4 51.7 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 64.4 64.8 65.0 65.2 65.1 64.3 63.4 62.8 62.5 59.8 55.5 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 11 15 19 25 27 27 25 22 HEAT CONTENT 54 64 71 75 70 36 14 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -17. -25. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -1. 2. 7. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 0. -4. -4. -3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952014 INVEST 10/30/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952014 INVEST 10/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952014 INVEST 10/30/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED