* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932014 10/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 32 37 44 50 53 57 61 63 56 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 32 37 44 50 53 57 61 63 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 35 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 7 9 3 3 7 2 3 7 21 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -5 -5 2 0 -3 -1 0 5 11 16 SHEAR DIR 214 207 194 194 207 199 242 340 307 234 207 203 209 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 150 151 150 150 152 156 157 156 150 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 60 61 61 67 70 72 71 74 72 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 11 13 15 15 18 20 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -2 9 12 15 20 16 12 2 15 19 31 200 MB DIV 19 22 37 43 52 46 59 50 88 131 122 126 101 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 2 15 21 LAND (KM) 596 608 623 653 683 791 870 912 933 899 791 632 426 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 9 10 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 19 18 18 20 18 30 52 39 33 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 9. 12. 12. 15. 19. 22. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 2. 7. 14. 20. 23. 27. 31. 33. 26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932014 INVEST 10/30/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932014 INVEST 10/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##