* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212014 10/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 41 49 56 66 72 71 62 46 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 41 49 56 66 72 71 62 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 31 35 38 38 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 9 11 8 1 8 6 2 5 15 27 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 6 -2 -3 -3 0 11 19 10 SHEAR DIR 225 199 190 201 212 312 339 25 110 244 205 208 222 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 151 150 152 154 157 157 154 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.6 -52.4 -53.0 -51.9 -52.6 -51.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 55 57 59 59 60 66 69 70 73 72 61 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 15 18 19 22 26 26 23 15 850 MB ENV VOR -12 2 17 18 18 24 22 15 5 14 13 26 20 200 MB DIV 29 37 47 62 52 54 51 94 97 172 122 78 -8 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 2 8 11 1 LAND (KM) 573 593 613 668 723 802 865 914 925 858 720 546 322 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.2 10.9 10.6 10.6 10.9 11.9 13.4 15.5 17.5 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.2 101.6 102.1 102.7 103.8 105.3 107.1 108.9 110.1 110.4 109.9 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 19 17 17 14 17 45 49 38 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 26. 27. 22. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 19. 26. 36. 42. 41. 32. 16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 TWENTYONE 10/30/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 TWENTYONE 10/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##