* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 10/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 46 51 56 60 63 63 54 45 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 46 51 56 60 63 63 54 45 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 38 39 38 37 38 39 40 39 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 11 8 3 4 10 4 4 7 16 23 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -5 0 -1 -1 0 0 5 11 19 7 SHEAR DIR 208 200 206 211 227 321 352 20 233 218 215 215 224 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 149 148 150 151 154 157 157 154 150 157 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 55 58 58 58 59 65 69 72 70 74 71 63 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 14 16 17 19 22 23 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR -1 4 7 12 17 22 19 8 -3 3 5 18 37 200 MB DIV 39 41 53 40 50 62 57 88 133 141 169 105 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 1 4 16 26 5 LAND (KM) 618 666 715 769 824 891 945 954 907 786 601 365 129 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 10.8 10.5 10.2 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.7 12.2 14.0 16.0 18.3 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 100.8 101.2 101.6 102.1 102.7 104.2 105.8 107.5 109.1 109.8 109.4 108.4 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 13 13 14 17 15 20 48 40 31 13 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 9. 11. 15. 19. 21. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 28. 19. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 10/30/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 10/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##