* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 10/31/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 49 56 62 74 76 76 72 59 38 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 49 56 62 74 76 76 72 59 38 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 48 49 49 49 52 56 58 56 49 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 6 2 5 6 2 2 10 18 27 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -1 1 -2 -1 -2 1 11 18 9 6 SHEAR DIR 182 203 218 234 297 349 31 100 235 216 210 208 225 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 149 148 150 153 156 156 154 150 146 151 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -52.7 -53.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 58 61 67 71 71 72 78 70 60 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 17 18 22 23 25 24 20 10 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 12 18 22 19 13 -1 0 -3 11 21 39 200 MB DIV 41 51 35 44 58 57 89 85 155 133 117 30 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -3 2 8 15 12 -6 LAND (KM) 652 693 734 781 828 909 943 960 908 778 565 360 222 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.4 11.3 12.9 14.9 17.2 19.2 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.5 101.8 102.4 103.0 104.8 106.7 108.6 110.2 110.6 109.9 108.9 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 7 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 14 15 16 15 36 54 38 23 9 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 7. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 16. 18. 21. 21. 14. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 23. 34. 36. 36. 32. 19. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##