* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 10/31/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 44 48 53 63 73 76 76 71 54 31 17 V (KT) LAND 40 41 44 48 53 63 73 76 76 71 54 31 25 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 43 44 45 46 49 51 52 50 44 37 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 1 4 6 6 2 7 10 20 30 43 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -1 12 18 17 7 -3 SHEAR DIR 216 219 299 357 19 10 353 223 182 198 237 241 259 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 149 149 152 156 158 156 152 152 160 159 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 2 700-500 MB RH 60 59 63 66 69 72 70 69 72 66 58 50 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 18 20 22 27 28 28 28 20 8 2 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 19 19 20 10 1 6 7 17 25 82 73 200 MB DIV 47 50 71 73 81 89 104 142 152 141 49 15 -26 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -4 2 7 12 15 -15 -5 LAND (KM) 698 745 794 835 876 893 876 825 706 511 217 52 -120 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.7 10.3 11.4 13.0 14.9 17.1 19.6 21.6 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 100.5 101.1 101.8 102.6 103.4 105.2 107.3 109.0 109.7 109.2 107.6 106.1 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 8 8 11 11 11 10 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 12 15 13 19 42 32 20 22 30 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 5. 0. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 22. 23. 23. 11. -6. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 23. 33. 36. 36. 31. 14. -9. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##