* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 10/31/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 42 45 50 59 67 74 71 58 50 30 24 V (KT) LAND 40 40 42 45 50 59 67 74 71 58 50 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 42 46 50 52 48 41 34 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 2 7 9 3 4 7 16 27 30 49 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 -1 -4 -3 -3 -3 4 18 22 11 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 204 172 3 8 29 11 287 207 187 216 233 252 260 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.4 28.9 29.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 148 149 153 157 158 155 149 155 163 154 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 6 5 6 3 1 700-500 MB RH 61 64 67 71 73 74 72 71 72 68 60 49 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 18 19 22 25 28 28 23 20 10 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 21 17 16 16 10 7 7 14 27 41 90 81 200 MB DIV 51 71 69 55 48 64 120 189 183 89 52 -10 -34 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -4 0 1 12 28 8 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 778 825 872 899 926 910 856 760 623 419 139 -6 -223 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.5 11.9 13.7 15.8 18.0 20.1 22.2 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.8 102.4 103.4 104.3 106.2 107.8 109.0 109.5 108.8 107.0 105.6 104.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 13 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 11 16 16 13 31 37 30 12 33 47 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 3. -3. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 22. 21. 14. 11. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 10. 19. 27. 34. 31. 18. 10. -10. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 10/31/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##