* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 36 38 42 50 56 62 59 47 37 28 21 V (KT) LAND 35 34 36 38 42 50 56 62 59 47 37 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 32 32 33 35 36 34 31 26 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 5 7 3 4 13 22 29 31 45 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 8 23 14 5 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 173 249 359 8 33 302 254 205 180 220 241 261 266 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.4 28.2 28.8 29.5 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 148 150 152 156 158 156 149 146 153 161 155 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 5 4 6 3 2 700-500 MB RH 63 67 72 74 75 75 74 74 74 66 56 51 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 17 18 20 22 26 26 21 16 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 26 19 15 8 5 3 9 5 32 34 59 68 37 200 MB DIV 68 71 43 47 64 113 182 209 179 41 18 -27 -21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 6 17 20 -2 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 811 853 894 898 904 889 869 753 576 379 177 43 -193 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.7 10.1 11.1 12.6 14.8 17.3 19.2 20.4 22.3 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.2 102.9 103.9 104.9 107.0 109.1 110.2 110.1 109.1 107.4 106.1 105.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 15 15 13 16 44 34 20 8 40 25 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 0. -5. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 18. 18. 12. 5. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 7. 15. 21. 27. 24. 12. 2. -7. -14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##