* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 11/01/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 8 7 14 18 27 30 30 25 25 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -7 -8 -6 -3 1 6 2 0 0 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 180 256 292 300 289 265 250 243 223 228 226 228 223 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 145 144 142 141 140 140 141 143 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 50 50 50 49 50 47 46 45 42 39 38 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 15 26 31 30 35 33 36 50 47 41 40 30 19 200 MB DIV 4 -4 -18 -3 -14 -15 -8 -17 -1 12 20 18 2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 2 4 2 LAND (KM) 1705 1747 1791 1825 1862 1926 1971 1988 2036 2119 2220 2307 2371 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.8 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.3 122.9 123.6 124.2 125.3 126.3 126.8 127.4 128.4 129.8 131.4 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 4 6 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 7 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 11/01/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 11/01/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##