* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 43 48 53 53 42 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 43 48 53 53 42 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 37 37 39 40 38 35 30 24 20 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 5 3 5 5 8 17 27 37 47 53 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 5 16 21 8 7 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 168 356 19 322 308 315 239 207 225 221 242 245 259 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.6 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 154 156 157 155 151 146 146 150 158 156 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 5 4 6 4 4 0 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 76 76 75 76 75 67 53 46 47 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 18 20 22 17 14 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 4 -1 -6 -10 -11 11 32 46 50 42 5 200 MB DIV 34 32 31 36 59 126 149 152 52 8 -26 -16 -37 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 4 18 21 1 2 -1 5 LAND (KM) 865 879 894 885 889 893 822 698 509 350 258 60 -163 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.6 11.1 12.4 14.2 16.2 18.1 19.8 21.3 22.8 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 102.7 103.7 104.7 105.9 107.0 109.2 110.5 110.7 109.9 109.0 108.1 106.8 105.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 22 19 14 15 42 38 29 11 10 43 25 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 1. -5. -12. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 5. -1. -10. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 18. 18. 7. -5. -21. -31. -35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##