* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 49 53 59 64 60 47 36 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 49 53 59 64 60 47 36 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 45 47 49 53 55 54 49 43 38 31 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 6 6 5 12 24 33 44 54 57 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -4 -3 1 11 18 8 0 -5 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 353 14 341 326 319 240 196 201 236 242 263 265 270 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.5 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 154 156 158 156 152 149 146 150 156 152 155 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 71 74 74 73 73 74 68 54 43 41 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 18 19 20 22 21 16 13 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 3 -3 -8 -7 5 4 35 47 79 68 30 -5 200 MB DIV 46 39 39 70 89 167 159 109 23 -12 -25 -29 -57 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 0 2 12 16 10 -3 0 6 6 LAND (KM) 883 891 887 895 917 872 782 630 409 252 37 -36 22 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.2 11.7 13.4 15.2 17.0 19.2 21.3 23.4 23.9 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.8 104.8 105.9 107.2 108.5 110.3 110.9 110.5 109.4 108.2 107.1 106.6 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 10 9 11 12 12 8 1 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 18 14 15 31 46 31 22 7 40 18 30 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -5. -13. -20. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 2. -2. -10. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 19. 24. 20. 7. -4. -19. -27. -32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##