* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 65 72 72 59 48 34 23 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 59 65 72 72 59 48 34 23 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 57 60 67 69 65 57 49 42 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 5 5 6 5 18 31 33 40 42 44 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -4 -3 -1 11 19 16 8 1 4 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 18 341 344 321 333 210 194 227 230 250 248 258 264 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 156 158 157 154 151 147 146 148 148 147 147 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 6 4 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 72 74 73 74 65 51 42 38 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 20 21 21 16 13 9 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -5 -12 -11 -6 6 29 40 65 52 21 -22 -23 200 MB DIV 36 36 58 89 129 162 145 59 35 -16 -11 -35 -37 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 0 0 5 13 15 2 1 1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 913 905 916 922 928 861 741 581 375 262 232 202 231 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.4 14.1 15.8 17.5 19.3 20.7 21.6 21.9 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 106.2 107.5 108.7 109.8 110.9 110.9 110.3 109.1 108.2 107.9 107.8 108.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 11 9 9 10 9 7 3 0 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 17 33 46 39 31 17 7 33 46 45 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -1. -6. -11. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 0. -4. -10. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 27. 27. 14. 3. -11. -22. -30. -33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##