* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 11/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 15 18 17 20 23 23 20 18 12 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -3 -3 0 3 -1 4 3 0 4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 302 302 291 299 295 274 256 258 263 284 319 328 3 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 142 142 143 145 145 145 145 144 142 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 48 47 46 44 42 39 39 37 37 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 32 39 34 31 33 49 48 36 20 19 9 8 5 200 MB DIV -20 -15 -12 11 9 -14 -7 7 0 33 11 -20 -23 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 2 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1953 1996 2041 2080 2120 2185 2259 2370 2480 2404 2256 2109 1947 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 125.7 126.4 127.0 127.6 128.5 129.3 130.6 132.1 133.5 134.8 136.1 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 9 9 7 8 11 10 10 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -19. -19. -19. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -13. -12. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 11/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 11/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##