* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 72 76 80 73 57 43 31 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 72 76 80 73 57 43 31 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 68 73 76 78 75 67 57 47 41 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 6 5 15 27 33 35 31 37 36 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 4 13 17 15 10 8 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 317 304 269 272 217 193 212 231 232 242 250 258 266 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 157 157 153 149 145 145 148 150 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 73 74 73 70 58 47 43 42 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 20 21 20 16 12 10 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -11 -17 -15 -3 13 39 42 62 30 -3 -32 -32 200 MB DIV 48 66 89 133 155 137 117 40 15 -5 -7 -42 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 3 12 17 10 0 3 6 4 2 LAND (KM) 887 880 886 870 858 765 634 485 342 250 219 195 195 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 15.2 16.8 18.2 19.4 20.5 21.4 21.9 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 107.1 108.3 109.2 110.1 110.7 110.4 109.7 108.8 108.1 107.7 107.7 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 31 42 44 32 24 10 9 30 46 45 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. -1. -6. -10. -12. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 25. 18. 2. -12. -24. -34. -42. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 77% is 5.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 67% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 54% is 9.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 51% is 11.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##