* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 11/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 19 19 21 25 23 23 22 23 21 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -1 1 1 4 6 5 3 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 310 301 309 311 300 290 281 293 302 326 342 351 360 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 144 144 144 146 147 147 147 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 50 49 47 46 46 45 45 45 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 35 35 33 34 41 45 38 19 9 0 -2 8 6 200 MB DIV -22 -19 4 6 11 -15 1 -9 13 1 0 -6 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2045 2097 2150 2189 2229 2301 2390 2513 2555 2431 2308 2191 2058 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.9 12.4 LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.5 127.2 127.8 128.3 129.1 130.0 131.3 132.6 133.8 134.9 135.9 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 12 10 11 13 11 11 12 9 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -9. -7. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 11/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 11/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##