* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 83 86 80 69 51 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 83 86 80 69 51 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 74 81 85 87 85 76 65 53 44 37 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 6 10 15 31 31 43 36 32 40 40 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 6 7 9 18 12 8 9 9 1 5 SHEAR DIR 279 252 223 204 221 221 228 228 243 243 260 266 267 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 157 155 148 145 143 142 143 142 141 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 5 3 5 3 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 73 73 73 60 49 40 37 30 26 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 22 21 21 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -21 -17 -11 -2 32 48 67 58 50 21 20 5 200 MB DIV 69 100 138 146 139 116 46 46 -3 16 -36 -11 -36 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 4 10 15 9 2 4 4 8 2 9 LAND (KM) 845 831 821 783 761 664 546 444 392 308 182 117 200 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 16.6 18.0 18.9 19.4 20.2 21.3 22.0 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 108.0 109.1 109.7 110.4 110.6 110.5 110.1 109.5 109.3 109.6 110.6 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 4 4 5 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 36 42 36 31 25 14 10 10 12 12 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. -3. -8. -12. -16. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 21. 15. 4. -14. -29. -42. -55. -64. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 72% is 5.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 67% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 60% is 10.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 56% is 13.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##