* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 11/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 19 17 16 17 19 20 22 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 23 22 19 17 16 17 19 20 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 26 25 23 21 19 18 17 16 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 19 23 23 21 24 19 18 20 19 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 0 1 5 4 4 3 4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 306 313 317 306 302 289 292 306 321 350 352 360 4 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 144 144 145 147 147 147 146 146 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 49 49 47 48 46 47 47 47 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 34 35 34 41 45 43 25 7 3 1 10 6 0 200 MB DIV -9 16 2 4 2 -7 -7 2 31 -12 3 -6 -11 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2112 2166 2220 2252 2285 2350 2455 2571 2481 2358 2235 2093 1941 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.3 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.3 128.0 128.5 128.9 129.7 130.7 132.1 133.3 134.4 135.5 136.7 138.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 15 14 14 14 13 9 9 8 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 11/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 11/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##