* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 86 89 88 75 57 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 82 86 89 88 75 57 37 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 83 87 89 89 82 71 61 51 43 37 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 13 21 32 34 40 41 48 44 46 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 8 9 11 17 14 10 7 3 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 256 237 220 235 212 224 224 214 217 232 242 257 260 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.6 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 155 152 146 144 144 144 142 141 138 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 72 74 73 75 70 58 44 35 31 24 19 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 23 23 20 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -18 -10 -5 8 38 49 82 60 46 38 24 9 200 MB DIV 93 134 125 130 159 107 54 49 -12 -21 -35 -18 -6 700-850 TADV -1 1 5 11 16 12 10 2 0 4 6 11 9 LAND (KM) 844 818 796 756 730 627 533 413 252 142 88 116 222 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.1 13.8 14.8 15.7 17.3 18.1 19.2 20.7 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.7 110.2 110.7 110.8 110.2 109.6 109.4 109.5 110.0 111.0 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 11 9 6 6 7 6 4 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 42 38 32 29 19 13 10 13 16 13 14 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -20. -25. -29. -34. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -8. -15. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 14. 13. 0. -18. -38. -54. -64. -74. -82. -88. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 40% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 30% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##