* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 99 97 92 73 53 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 96 99 97 92 73 53 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 99 97 94 82 70 58 49 42 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 13 23 30 34 45 47 45 48 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 9 11 7 11 17 12 9 3 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 213 235 220 225 227 219 220 230 246 249 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 154 151 148 145 143 145 145 146 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 4 5 3 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 75 73 62 49 41 41 37 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 22 21 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -11 -8 3 26 49 70 66 35 3 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 119 122 126 133 128 61 50 -8 6 -26 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 11 19 19 17 -1 1 5 14 17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 833 793 771 722 677 501 324 229 198 153 84 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.8 18.4 20.0 21.1 21.7 22.2 22.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.0 110.6 110.7 110.9 110.4 109.6 108.9 108.5 108.5 108.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 9 8 9 8 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 36 31 28 22 12 10 22 34 37 36 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -19. -25. -29. -33. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -6. -12. -23. -23. -23. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 7. 2. -17. -37. -63. -73. -83. -92. -99.-103. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 125.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##