* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942014 11/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 21 24 23 21 22 24 28 29 29 25 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 4 3 6 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 319 309 309 302 301 302 323 335 344 342 342 346 5 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 145 145 145 147 147 147 147 147 148 148 145 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 48 46 45 45 45 45 43 47 47 49 53 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 39 39 39 29 9 3 -3 3 -2 -13 -40 200 MB DIV 12 7 -17 -27 -14 -2 -23 2 11 18 47 36 12 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 2236 2275 2315 2352 2388 2509 2599 2465 2333 2193 2039 1865 1710 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.2 10.9 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.3 11.9 LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.5 129.0 129.4 129.8 131.0 132.4 133.8 135.1 136.5 138.0 139.6 140.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 14 15 12 10 9 8 7 8 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -7. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942014 INVEST 11/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942014 INVEST 11/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##