* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 92 89 83 63 46 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 92 92 89 83 63 46 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 92 90 86 80 67 56 48 42 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 20 24 27 30 35 44 49 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 12 15 14 10 7 4 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 214 206 212 220 230 237 232 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.6 29.1 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 151 149 146 146 150 155 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 72 75 77 71 62 52 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 22 22 21 16 13 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -3 6 33 51 57 90 89 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 161 152 142 110 69 30 19 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 10 20 18 24 18 7 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 801 750 711 648 580 404 261 112 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 15.0 16.0 16.9 17.7 19.3 21.1 22.7 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.4 110.7 110.6 110.5 109.4 108.1 107.4 107.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 10 10 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 31 28 23 16 10 36 31 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -12. -18. -23. -29. -36. -38. -40. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. -6. -10. -19. -20. -19. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -1. -7. -27. -44. -64. -75. -83. -92. -98.-100. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##