* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 80 73 61 42 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 86 80 73 61 42 24 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 87 82 76 68 55 44 37 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 29 34 37 44 54 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 15 15 15 18 10 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 196 210 218 225 220 232 230 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 148 146 145 147 150 151 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 6 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 75 77 72 67 55 47 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 18 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 25 45 51 71 78 47 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 143 166 170 109 69 47 9 -15 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 17 17 21 14 3 0 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 784 726 675 588 489 317 198 127 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.7 16.7 17.6 18.5 20.2 21.9 22.8 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 110.7 110.8 110.5 110.1 109.0 108.2 107.7 107.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 7 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 26 21 16 11 16 47 40 27 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -31. -37. -42. -45. -48. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -19. -19. -19. -19. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -29. -48. -66. -75. -83. -89. -96.-102.-106. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##