* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 11/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 45 51 56 57 53 44 34 26 21 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 45 51 56 47 33 29 26 18 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 46 54 51 34 29 30 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 10 3 2 4 12 20 43 60 56 48 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 4 9 8 5 8 5 1 5 1 SHEAR DIR 320 335 19 8 51 165 204 213 245 252 263 267 277 SST (C) 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.7 28.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 160 162 160 158 158 164 156 146 145 148 144 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 7 7 7 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 71 76 77 74 68 57 51 52 61 61 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -59 -16 9 19 16 12 14 4 -17 -29 -20 -26 200 MB DIV 3 47 51 49 57 62 58 16 -10 4 -28 -10 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 2 0 -2 4 0 -14 -22 -23 0 LAND (KM) 734 716 698 631 557 399 221 -63 -309 -163 122 394 342 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.5 13.5 15.3 17.3 19.9 22.5 24.1 24.1 23.8 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.9 102.2 103.5 104.3 105.1 105.4 105.4 104.6 102.5 99.4 96.6 93.9 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 13 10 10 12 15 16 14 12 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 2 7 18 24 35 36 30 37 0 0 19 15 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 1. -9. -18. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 21. 22. 18. 9. -1. -9. -14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 11/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 11/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##