* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 84 73 62 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 91 84 73 62 43 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 92 86 77 69 54 43 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 31 33 38 41 52 53 57 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 16 12 7 5 1 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 203 216 226 224 228 235 246 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 145 144 146 151 152 149 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 79 74 68 61 50 47 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 18 16 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 25 47 52 54 94 72 28 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 157 162 133 71 70 36 0 -36 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 20 22 19 17 6 1 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 726 657 570 461 356 195 60 -14 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.8 19.7 21.8 23.4 24.1 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 110.7 110.6 110.2 109.7 108.4 107.4 107.1 107.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 7 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 20 14 9 9 43 23 29 28 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -15. -21. -31. -38. -45. -50. -53. -57. -61. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -5. -9. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -11. -22. -33. -52. -71. -82. -91. -98.-106.-112.-115. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##