* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 11/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 41 48 52 54 52 45 37 31 30 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 41 48 52 54 46 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 31 33 39 45 49 51 33 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 5 8 8 12 23 36 45 41 38 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 1 5 5 13 6 5 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 13 52 86 106 110 162 190 224 261 279 284 290 283 SST (C) 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 29.3 29.6 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 162 160 159 156 154 159 161 155 154 152 151 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 3 1 2 2 6 700-500 MB RH 69 74 74 73 69 65 51 46 47 46 43 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 0 13 19 13 25 24 3 -16 -50 -81 -65 -23 200 MB DIV 49 61 67 62 51 79 44 19 -21 -27 -17 -25 -10 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 4 0 12 15 6 2 -3 1 -2 LAND (KM) 814 777 730 663 602 468 301 116 -7 -182 -347 -240 -168 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 11.3 12.1 13.1 14.0 15.7 17.8 20.2 22.3 23.0 22.5 21.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.7 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.2 107.3 106.8 105.6 104.0 102.1 100.0 98.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 12 11 10 10 11 12 10 8 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 18 35 58 29 20 30 46 0 0 0 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -7. -13. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 11. 18. 22. 24. 22. 15. 7. 1. 0. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 11/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 11/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##