* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 77 66 54 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 89 77 66 54 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 91 84 75 66 50 39 29 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 39 39 43 45 51 57 59 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 13 11 6 11 1 0 -8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 222 223 214 212 219 235 263 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 144 144 146 151 150 149 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 74 65 59 53 44 41 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 17 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 49 55 64 85 88 46 4 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 156 122 71 76 53 25 -25 -44 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 24 17 11 1 -8 5 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 662 564 456 361 276 143 44 -15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.9 18.8 19.7 20.5 22.4 24.3 25.1 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.8 110.6 110.3 109.8 109.3 108.4 108.1 108.0 108.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 7 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 14 9 9 14 50 20 20 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -12. -19. -25. -34. -41. -48. -54. -58. -62. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -4. -7. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -18. -29. -41. -64. -78. -90. -99.-107.-114.-121.-124. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##