* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 11/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 52 55 55 50 46 42 40 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 50 52 55 55 50 46 35 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 32 34 40 45 50 52 52 52 41 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 10 12 10 11 11 11 22 31 31 33 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 0 0 5 3 7 3 2 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 50 80 92 98 114 149 160 241 258 280 281 287 281 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 161 159 158 155 154 153 154 153 157 160 159 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 6 7 5 5 3 5 3 6 700-500 MB RH 72 73 70 67 66 61 52 50 47 41 37 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -5 21 22 17 15 2 26 7 -13 -47 -51 -66 -39 200 MB DIV 53 41 66 54 43 83 69 18 0 -34 -10 -24 0 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 0 2 2 8 6 8 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 829 760 700 639 578 462 321 221 165 162 82 -61 -204 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 15.5 17.3 19.2 20.9 21.8 22.3 21.8 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.3 106.0 106.2 106.4 106.7 107.1 107.4 107.2 107.2 106.6 104.8 103.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 8 8 8 10 9 7 4 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 22 38 51 31 21 23 44 43 28 47 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 437 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -5. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 22. 25. 25. 20. 16. 12. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 11/04/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 11/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##