* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 82 72 60 47 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 82 72 60 47 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 76 67 59 45 32 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 32 34 39 47 56 61 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 16 17 14 5 1 -6 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 213 209 210 215 228 243 258 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 148 151 152 149 148 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 3 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 68 62 57 50 47 40 38 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 59 67 78 98 87 18 5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 87 97 58 36 5 -16 -34 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 16 13 12 9 7 16 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 556 466 382 289 222 75 -51 -63 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.5 21.5 23.7 25.1 25.5 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 109.9 109.4 108.9 108.4 107.9 107.6 107.7 108.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 9 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 10 19 40 27 16 9 10 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -16. -21. -31. -39. -47. -53. -58. -63. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -18. -30. -43. -58. -72. -83. -92.-100.-107.-113.-114. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##