* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 11/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 41 44 48 52 52 48 39 30 24 21 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 41 44 48 52 46 34 29 27 26 23 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 37 41 47 52 54 34 29 27 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 9 10 11 15 28 41 44 47 43 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 0 3 3 5 9 7 2 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 69 80 95 124 149 165 207 247 272 284 294 289 277 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.7 29.0 28.6 28.2 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 159 157 155 159 163 155 152 149 151 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 1 1 2 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 67 64 58 52 53 51 47 46 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 10 19 17 14 15 6 6 -10 -54 -95 -71 -19 -15 200 MB DIV 53 62 63 68 82 60 32 -3 -16 -15 -19 -13 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 4 11 7 3 -2 2 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 770 695 628 551 479 312 134 -2 -209 -354 -40 183 38 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 17.0 19.5 21.9 23.2 23.1 21.9 20.4 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.7 106.1 106.2 106.4 106.6 106.6 105.6 103.8 101.3 98.2 94.8 91.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 13 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 15 20 38 48 36 21 25 6 0 0 20 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -4. -11. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 22. 22. 18. 9. 0. -6. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 11/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 11/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##