* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 75 61 46 35 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 75 61 46 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 78 70 61 54 37 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 38 47 54 56 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 19 12 5 0 -1 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 214 203 210 217 223 231 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.7 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 151 153 152 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 4 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 57 50 48 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 66 81 104 95 76 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 95 59 30 17 7 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 12 7 4 3 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 456 345 249 174 127 -74 -247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.8 20.9 22.0 23.1 25.1 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.8 109.4 108.9 108.5 108.0 107.3 106.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 22 45 39 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -18. -24. -35. -44. -52. -59. -66. -72. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -4. -10. -12. -15. -16. -17. -16. -16. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -24. -39. -50. -66. -78. -90. -99.-107.-115.-121.-123. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##