* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952014 11/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 36 37 40 40 36 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 36 37 35 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 34 36 34 29 28 27 25 21 19 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 9 12 13 21 40 64 65 55 48 45 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 3 4 5 13 7 3 1 0 2 12 SHEAR DIR 83 110 151 176 195 211 244 258 271 280 278 266 239 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.7 28.9 27.7 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 157 157 158 164 156 143 136 141 143 142 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 -54.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 66 61 55 56 65 60 54 49 54 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 18 12 6 12 33 20 -26 -72 -71 -39 55 67 200 MB DIV 61 80 66 69 45 23 20 -4 -37 -16 -1 13 56 700-850 TADV 3 3 2 1 3 7 1 -2 -7 -10 -2 4 -6 LAND (KM) 652 549 450 349 235 -21 -244 -280 -5 311 300 266 75 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.3 17.4 20.2 23.1 25.3 26.1 26.1 26.4 27.5 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.1 106.1 106.0 105.9 105.3 103.4 100.4 97.3 94.1 90.7 86.5 80.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 13 16 17 16 14 15 17 24 30 HEAT CONTENT 29 49 36 24 26 36 0 0 0 8 11 11 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -7. -20. -32. -40. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 10. 6. -4. -15. -24. -26. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952014 INVEST 11/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952014 INVEST 11/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##