* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * VANCE EP212014 11/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 32 25 20 23 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 56 60 64 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 6 -1 1 -1 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 211 219 226 233 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 155 153 150 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 50 49 48 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 111 118 108 96 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 44 46 -21 -18 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 0 -6 0 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 276 191 67 -48 -163 -363 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.1 23.2 24.3 25.4 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 107.8 107.3 106.9 106.4 105.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 48 22 22 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -30. -44. -61. -74. -83. -89. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -9. -14. -17. -19. -19. -19. -17. -13. -11. -10. -7. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -24. -33. -39. -47. -59. -71. -81. -91. -98. -99. -95. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP212014 VANCE 11/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 58.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212014 VANCE 11/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##