* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972014 11/05/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 39 42 40 37 38 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 31 33 39 42 40 37 38 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 31 33 34 35 38 42 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 33 23 15 4 3 17 33 49 56 70 34 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 2 4 5 2 8 0 0 16 18 SHEAR DIR 201 200 214 304 8 264 202 213 226 253 261 225 201 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.0 24.9 23.8 13.7 10.0 10.8 11.3 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 147 143 139 129 113 105 76 73 70 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 137 132 127 123 113 101 74 71 68 65 63 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.2 -55.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.7 -56.7 -56.2 -56.7 -56.7 -56.5 -56.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 60 59 56 58 55 59 62 54 70 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 50 25 6 -7 -19 19 8 60 86 128 178 202 200 MB DIV 25 -20 -18 -24 32 39 112 77 89 123 37 42 35 700-850 TADV 11 13 16 10 4 15 -66 -84 -199 19 70 26 40 LAND (KM) 266 341 418 530 651 988 1104 816 688 1482 875 563 613 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 22.1 23.3 24.5 25.6 28.6 33.3 39.4 46.2 51.3 54.1 56.3 58.7 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 67.8 68.7 69.3 70.0 69.0 63.7 54.8 44.0 32.7 23.4 17.8 16.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 13 13 24 40 49 49 38 25 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 57 44 51 41 38 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 2. -4. -13. -17. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 14. 17. 15. 12. 13. 15. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 11/05/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972014 INVEST 11/05/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 11/05/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)