* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972014 11/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 41 41 39 38 40 42 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 41 41 39 38 40 42 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 34 35 37 42 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 15 4 2 8 20 44 53 67 55 28 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 4 4 3 5 7 0 5 20 17 SHEAR DIR 201 217 312 356 286 235 202 216 235 250 258 217 218 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 25.8 24.7 17.9 14.7 10.5 11.4 11.1 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 144 138 134 118 112 82 77 71 69 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 137 132 125 123 115 110 79 74 70 66 63 62 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.2 -55.1 -54.9 -54.8 -55.5 -56.1 -56.5 -55.9 -56.2 -55.5 -54.9 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 59 57 57 57 56 57 56 59 75 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 25 5 -6 -20 6 10 -10 75 111 178 218 238 200 MB DIV -20 -18 -26 31 42 87 111 47 118 102 38 38 19 700-850 TADV 14 16 10 5 4 -3 -93 -172 -152 -59 28 15 10 LAND (KM) 357 422 523 659 795 977 982 566 977 1293 731 583 727 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.3 24.4 25.7 26.9 30.4 35.7 41.9 48.0 51.9 54.3 56.7 58.3 LONG(DEG W) 67.7 68.6 69.5 69.8 70.0 67.3 60.1 50.7 39.7 29.2 21.2 17.8 18.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 16 30 44 49 44 33 20 11 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 49 44 31 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 20. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 2. -5. -13. -16. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 16. 16. 14. 13. 15. 17. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 11/06/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972014 INVEST 11/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 11/06/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED