* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 29 39 51 60 67 69 70 74 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 29 39 51 60 67 69 70 74 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 42 52 62 69 71 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 11 6 5 4 5 3 5 8 12 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -5 -4 -3 -3 -5 -7 -4 2 3 12 SHEAR DIR 82 93 100 100 82 55 92 93 134 209 229 217 232 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 155 157 159 160 160 156 154 153 154 154 152 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 63 67 72 71 64 61 58 61 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 11 13 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -43 -42 -38 -35 -41 -30 -5 24 37 42 27 27 200 MB DIV 14 15 12 35 46 55 60 28 36 59 68 101 121 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 3 5 10 LAND (KM) 789 797 807 821 830 848 862 849 826 800 714 552 354 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.7 12.5 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.9 16.1 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.9 103.0 104.1 105.2 107.3 108.8 109.7 110.0 110.1 109.8 108.9 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 10 7 4 2 3 6 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 11 19 10 9 34 34 31 27 23 21 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 11. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 18. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 9. 19. 31. 40. 47. 49. 50. 54. 48. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/06/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##