* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972014 11/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 34 37 32 26 27 31 37 45 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 34 37 32 26 27 31 37 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 30 29 32 38 47 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 9 11 20 44 67 69 54 25 10 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 6 3 6 2 15 14 2 8 10 17 SHEAR DIR 258 332 349 282 258 198 207 218 227 244 252 233 197 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.8 25.0 23.7 12.6 11.2 10.3 11.0 10.5 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 135 129 126 113 105 75 74 69 65 63 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 124 121 116 118 111 101 73 72 68 63 61 61 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.2 -54.9 -54.7 -55.2 -55.7 -55.6 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.7 -55.8 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 52 53 59 55 56 56 51 64 67 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 3 -11 -28 0 57 64 66 153 156 182 192 219 200 MB DIV -34 -15 37 44 54 118 68 41 92 65 12 3 26 700-850 TADV 13 6 2 -1 0 -110 -119 -225 -234 -17 -9 14 18 LAND (KM) 549 641 734 886 887 1024 788 503 1270 1048 765 800 957 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.5 26.4 27.8 29.1 33.5 38.9 44.8 50.0 53.4 55.5 57.1 58.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.2 69.9 70.6 70.3 69.9 65.0 56.8 47.2 35.6 25.9 21.6 21.4 23.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 14 21 37 45 47 41 25 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 15 CX,CY: -8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 6. -3. -12. -17. -18. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 12. 7. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 11/06/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972014 INVEST 11/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 11/06/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED