* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/06/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 56 57 55 53 48 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 51 56 57 55 53 48 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 32 37 43 52 61 66 66 61 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 6 5 3 3 1 3 6 14 21 35 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -4 -2 0 -4 -2 -6 -4 -1 2 4 -1 SHEAR DIR 90 108 109 89 144 52 96 155 213 256 237 232 248 SST (C) 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.5 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 158 160 161 160 158 154 152 151 150 149 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 62 63 66 68 68 64 57 53 52 56 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -36 -35 -36 -39 -31 -2 20 39 41 39 4 1 200 MB DIV 19 7 33 44 45 49 52 31 51 48 88 81 65 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -4 -1 0 0 3 8 9 5 LAND (KM) 765 774 782 790 794 804 790 777 761 720 597 406 162 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.6 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.7 18.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.7 103.8 104.9 106.1 108.0 109.2 109.9 110.3 110.4 109.9 108.8 107.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 9 6 4 4 5 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 7 17 11 7 29 30 26 24 23 19 10 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 26. 31. 32. 30. 28. 23. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/06/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/06/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##