* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972014 11/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 38 39 34 29 30 34 38 44 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 38 39 34 29 30 34 38 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 28 28 30 35 42 50 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 16 22 29 65 70 65 22 14 14 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 6 3 2 5 8 12 11 1 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 325 334 290 248 215 194 214 221 211 259 277 275 256 SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.3 25.2 24.3 13.0 11.6 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 129 127 121 113 109 75 74 68 63 60 60 61 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 115 115 114 110 105 73 72 66 62 59 58 59 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.2 -55.1 -55.7 -56.3 -55.7 -55.0 -53.5 -52.6 -53.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 54 58 63 56 54 66 73 81 83 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -18 -36 7 44 119 171 240 257 233 174 199 200 200 MB DIV -24 41 45 63 109 124 68 115 113 13 27 36 23 700-850 TADV 9 4 1 6 -20 -142 -247 -247 -106 -11 -5 1 9 LAND (KM) 729 849 913 879 900 799 358 840 1382 1423 1364 1386 1477 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 27.4 28.5 30.4 32.2 37.7 43.8 50.0 54.9 57.1 57.9 58.4 58.3 LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.1 70.3 68.6 67.0 59.9 51.1 41.6 34.9 31.9 30.7 30.9 32.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 16 23 31 43 45 38 23 9 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 16 CX,CY: -6/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 745 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 14. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 5. -5. -13. -17. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 13. 14. 9. 4. 5. 9. 13. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 11/06/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972014 INVEST 11/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 11/06/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED