* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 49 58 66 67 66 64 62 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 49 58 66 67 66 64 62 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 33 35 41 49 58 67 71 69 63 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 6 4 1 3 1 2 10 16 29 42 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -5 -2 -1 1 2 4 -9 SHEAR DIR 107 114 105 143 105 22 10 154 246 247 234 234 251 SST (C) 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 158 160 161 161 159 157 154 152 150 149 152 160 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 5 700-500 MB RH 60 61 66 68 69 66 61 58 53 55 58 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 9 11 12 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -37 -37 -41 -43 -29 3 31 41 40 18 10 8 200 MB DIV 0 28 40 52 58 59 35 58 35 90 88 108 58 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 0 0 1 7 8 2 LAND (KM) 785 798 809 804 817 809 781 752 730 653 494 277 62 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.5 11.9 13.0 13.9 14.6 15.1 16.1 17.5 19.0 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.7 104.9 106.0 107.1 108.7 109.6 110.0 110.2 110.1 109.3 107.9 106.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 8 5 3 4 6 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 16 11 7 8 32 27 24 23 22 11 18 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 7. 3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 24. 33. 41. 42. 41. 39. 37. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/06/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##