* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 49 59 61 63 61 59 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 49 59 61 63 61 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 19 20 24 28 35 43 49 53 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 6 9 7 5 3 3 5 19 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -4 -6 -2 -3 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 90 69 72 74 61 92 100 86 287 224 237 240 240 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 160 160 159 156 153 152 151 152 152 153 152 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 61 66 69 71 70 69 64 65 63 67 71 72 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 10 10 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -36 -42 -46 -49 -41 -23 3 15 33 24 16 32 200 MB DIV 33 49 59 64 58 60 56 62 46 103 115 125 85 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 0 -1 0 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 868 900 928 962 1003 1039 1064 1078 1095 1029 861 680 531 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.7 14.8 15.7 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 103.9 105.2 106.6 107.8 109.0 110.7 111.7 112.2 112.7 112.6 111.5 110.1 108.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 11 7 4 3 3 6 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 13 7 10 32 45 32 27 24 22 23 23 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 11. 8. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 29. 39. 41. 43. 41. 39. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/06/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##