* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 28 37 49 56 60 60 59 58 56 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 28 37 49 56 60 60 59 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 19 20 23 28 35 42 47 46 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 10 10 5 4 4 6 19 27 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -3 -7 -4 0 3 9 0 2 SHEAR DIR 93 76 60 59 75 58 69 279 266 239 233 243 241 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 160 158 156 152 151 152 151 150 150 152 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 66 68 71 71 71 69 67 65 67 70 72 66 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 11 13 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -46 -51 -56 -52 -35 -2 20 36 34 17 22 38 200 MB DIV 37 29 31 36 41 38 62 52 115 132 141 75 69 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 5 6 3 1 LAND (KM) 877 896 937 954 973 992 1001 1008 973 817 603 409 276 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.9 15.3 16.6 17.6 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.4 107.7 108.7 109.6 110.8 111.5 111.9 112.1 111.4 109.9 108.4 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 12 10 8 6 3 3 5 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 9 25 44 40 31 26 23 23 19 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 8. 17. 29. 36. 40. 40. 39. 38. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/07/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##