* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/07/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 52 61 65 67 62 58 54 50 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 52 61 65 67 62 58 54 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 37 45 55 64 69 67 62 56 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 8 8 6 4 2 10 10 25 34 40 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -6 -7 -4 0 6 1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 61 52 57 70 72 57 230 286 236 234 239 245 245 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 158 158 154 153 151 150 148 147 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 70 70 70 70 66 67 64 67 67 66 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -48 -52 -50 -44 -23 9 24 43 32 16 19 25 200 MB DIV 34 25 36 50 49 51 51 77 106 104 92 48 37 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -2 0 6 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 895 917 951 959 965 979 992 1004 910 722 516 361 271 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.8 13.2 13.7 15.0 16.5 17.7 18.5 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.4 108.6 109.3 110.1 111.1 111.7 112.3 112.3 111.2 109.7 108.5 107.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 10 8 7 5 4 5 7 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 24 40 45 35 28 23 20 25 10 9 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 27. 36. 40. 42. 37. 33. 29. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/07/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/07/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##