* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 46 50 52 49 43 40 38 35 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 46 50 52 49 43 40 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 30 32 39 45 48 47 44 40 33 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 4 5 2 7 16 19 25 37 40 44 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -6 -8 -7 -1 0 8 2 -5 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 26 55 53 72 85 271 289 260 245 238 247 256 261 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.5 29.4 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 156 154 152 151 151 149 150 159 161 157 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 69 68 69 67 72 69 65 61 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -45 -37 -26 -14 7 17 31 8 0 4 0 -19 200 MB DIV 28 37 53 36 47 56 64 99 113 99 55 24 14 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 11 6 3 4 LAND (KM) 890 897 901 900 902 915 910 804 591 331 94 -23 -164 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.2 15.5 17.2 18.7 20.0 21.0 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.2 110.6 111.1 111.6 111.4 110.2 108.3 106.5 105.0 103.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 5 4 3 5 8 11 11 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 31 39 42 43 40 29 25 15 13 31 39 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -5. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 25. 27. 24. 18. 15. 13. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/07/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 53% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##