* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 43 43 39 33 28 24 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 40 43 43 39 33 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 35 35 34 32 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 3 2 12 14 18 31 46 47 51 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -6 -6 -7 -2 -3 4 2 -8 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 42 22 344 6 255 257 252 228 212 236 247 258 249 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.4 29.4 29.3 28.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 155 153 152 150 148 145 150 160 158 149 145 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 5 6 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 67 68 66 66 64 60 56 54 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -34 -22 -10 1 31 32 31 -7 -14 1 -2 -6 200 MB DIV 35 50 48 55 74 59 75 124 95 39 26 40 29 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 6 8 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 892 874 862 853 846 822 751 537 324 111 -122 -322 -306 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.3 15.0 16.2 18.1 20.1 21.8 23.1 24.0 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.0 110.4 110.7 110.9 111.2 111.3 110.6 108.8 106.7 104.7 103.0 100.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 4 4 5 8 11 13 12 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 38 34 31 26 26 8 14 24 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 31. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. -4. -11. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 18. 18. 14. 8. 3. -1. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##