* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 40 43 42 37 32 27 23 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 40 43 42 37 32 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 34 35 35 32 29 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 4 10 14 18 25 42 45 53 55 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -7 -8 -6 -2 1 1 1 1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 71 33 56 177 206 260 233 211 223 237 249 252 251 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.8 28.3 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 152 151 150 149 147 143 149 155 152 144 137 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -52.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 69 67 63 62 57 52 48 48 52 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -21 -9 10 35 48 50 36 -1 5 3 1 2 200 MB DIV 61 42 44 61 58 66 111 113 76 53 28 29 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 16 6 8 3 -1 LAND (KM) 889 885 884 879 876 837 663 389 177 37 -200 -445 -263 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.6 17.2 19.5 21.6 23.4 24.7 25.9 26.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 110.7 111.1 111.3 111.6 112.0 111.9 110.9 109.0 107.1 105.2 103.1 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 4 5 6 10 13 13 12 11 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 34 28 26 22 13 6 21 13 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -2. -9. -17. -24. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 18. 17. 12. 7. 2. -2. -6. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/08/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##