* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/08/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 31 30 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 31 30 27 23 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 28 26 23 20 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 4 11 19 24 28 38 49 53 60 67 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -9 -6 -4 -1 3 5 -2 -1 -7 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 125 85 189 233 261 249 233 225 241 246 253 252 259 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.8 28.6 29.0 28.2 27.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 149 149 147 144 143 152 155 147 139 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 5 5 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 64 62 62 56 50 46 45 48 55 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 1 23 46 49 52 43 19 -19 -2 0 -3 -16 200 MB DIV 33 33 65 66 71 81 112 111 44 23 11 10 -25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 4 10 13 8 2 6 0 -26 LAND (KM) 845 847 852 850 837 716 499 217 116 -74 -312 -420 9 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.9 18.9 21.0 22.8 24.1 25.4 26.6 27.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.1 111.4 111.7 112.0 112.5 112.2 110.5 108.4 106.3 104.4 101.6 97.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 5 5 6 8 12 13 13 11 12 16 20 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 26 24 22 11 5 7 36 27 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -11. -20. -29. -38. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -9. -14. -19. -22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/08/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/08/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##