* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/09/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 20 26 23 31 45 54 56 60 69 77 77 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -5 -2 4 3 -5 2 -3 -3 -9 -8 SHEAR DIR 231 260 272 267 247 227 227 239 241 250 253 258 255 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.9 28.8 28.7 27.9 26.8 26.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 147 145 143 145 154 153 145 135 129 139 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 59 60 57 55 50 49 52 56 61 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 44 45 39 36 36 2 -17 9 5 -19 -17 12 200 MB DIV 71 70 94 91 89 112 121 29 28 16 11 -4 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 5 8 17 8 3 6 0 -33 -44 LAND (KM) 852 843 816 735 656 426 133 90 -178 -445 -247 101 140 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.6 17.4 19.5 21.7 23.4 24.6 25.8 27.2 27.9 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 111.7 112.0 112.2 112.3 111.9 110.1 107.8 105.4 103.0 99.9 95.2 88.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 10 12 14 13 12 14 19 25 29 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 21 16 9 5 9 22 32 0 0 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -23. -35. -46. -56. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -12. -20. -27. -34. -39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/09/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/09/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##