* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/10/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 38 41 36 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 38 41 33 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 35 35 31 27 27 27 26 23 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 29 35 43 50 64 69 79 73 73 71 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 4 3 0 -7 -8 -9 -5 -4 0 6 SHEAR DIR 236 226 220 222 230 237 243 248 251 257 261 256 258 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.3 29.0 28.3 27.4 26.3 25.6 25.7 27.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 145 149 156 149 140 131 126 128 143 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 700-500 MB RH 63 63 59 59 55 51 51 57 66 62 42 31 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 9 8 9 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 44 28 13 -2 3 1 -14 -19 -24 -8 8 -21 200 MB DIV 127 118 101 103 62 47 25 34 15 -17 3 2 -1 700-850 TADV 7 5 13 18 17 0 7 3 -5 -23 -23 -52 -52 LAND (KM) 670 519 367 212 132 -22 -312 -421 -40 124 146 484 993 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.6 19.9 21.0 22.1 23.7 25.1 26.5 27.8 28.3 28.4 29.3 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.0 111.5 110.3 109.0 106.6 104.1 101.6 97.7 91.7 84.2 75.7 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 14 16 15 14 13 16 22 30 35 39 41 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 5 7 23 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -12. -25. -44. -62. -75. -84. -89. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 11. 6. 1. -5. -17. -30. -41. -50. -58. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/10/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/10/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##