* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 31 26 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 31 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 30 28 25 26 27 28 23 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 27 34 40 45 56 66 78 76 76 75 67 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 5 4 0 1 -10 -11 -7 -7 -3 1 8 SHEAR DIR 228 224 223 230 235 238 248 247 258 259 259 258 257 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.3 27.1 25.8 24.7 24.9 25.7 24.8 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 150 153 149 137 125 115 119 128 120 120 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 58 54 50 55 60 67 51 41 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 25 15 0 -20 2 -3 -19 -38 -23 12 32 53 200 MB DIV 123 104 93 61 40 33 28 32 -13 7 -5 9 13 700-850 TADV 6 11 20 17 4 2 5 0 -26 -41 -32 -53 -73 LAND (KM) 572 403 244 180 120 -171 -452 -249 59 155 122 671 1212 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.4 20.7 21.7 22.7 24.3 25.8 27.4 28.5 28.8 29.3 30.9 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 111.1 110.1 108.8 107.5 105.2 102.9 99.9 94.9 87.7 79.7 71.0 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 16 16 14 13 14 19 27 33 37 40 40 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 8 32 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 834 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -13. -28. -48. -66. -80. -90. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. -4. -7. -14. -26. -38. -50. -59. -65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##