* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962014 11/11/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 30 35 38 39 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 230 227 225 233 243 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 146 144 144 144 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 57 52 45 42 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 19 27 20 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 35 49 39 26 4 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 6 1 0 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 322 291 278 266 255 192 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 4 2 2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 10 22 25 28 31 28 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -12. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -22. -29. -33. -38. -41. -42. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962014 INVEST 11/11/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962014 INVEST 11/11/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##